By Tommy Acosta
When it’s all done, when all the campaigning is over and the people finally hit the voting booths, the winners of the midterm elections may not be determined by campaign messages, political promises or even the obscene amount of money spent trying to convince us that one bunch of politicians is less screwed up than the other.
The midterms may come down to two of the most basic emotions we humans possess: love and hate.
Let’s start with Donald Trump. There is no doubt that he is one of the most loved and hated politicians ever to campaign for office.
That’s something one cannot deny. You either love Trump or you hate him, and there doesn’t seem to be a of a lot of room left in the middle.
So, for Trump, it will be very important to stroke his love-based followers and get them out on Election Day. He needs them to vote and overcome whatever doubts they may have about him.
The Democrats, meanwhile, may be divided among socialists, liberals, progressives and just about everything else that can divide a political party. But they have one great unifying factor.
They hate him! That may be the most compelling reason that brings them out on Election Day, either to the voting booth or to mail in their ballots. The hate of this president may be what determines the election.
The problem for the Republican Party is that some Republicans are getting a little apprehensive about what’s happening. Republicans and Conservatives drive cars, too, and the price of gasoline keeps going up and up.
For working Republicans trying to make ends meet, that hurts. Political philosophy is one thing; filling up your pickup truck is another.
Then there’s immigration. Many Republicans supported Trump’s deportation program because they wanted the border secured and dangerous criminals removed from the country.
They wanted the thugs, killers, pimps, gang members and violent criminals out. But did they sign up for everything they are seeing now?
A lot of Republicans have feelings, emotions and compassion, too. They see ICE going after people who work, people who have families, people who have children and people who may have lived here for years.
An August AP-NORC poll found roughly 8 in 10 Republicans still approved of Trump’s handling of immigration, while a September Fox News poll found 53% of registered voters overall thought immigration enforcement had gone too far. Those 2 out of 10 Republicans who do not approve may be the weight that tips the electoral scales.
That can sour some people on Trump. They wanted the border secure and dangerous criminals out but watching hardworking people who have contributed their sweat to America being thrown to the ground — and not nicely, either — is something else altogether.
Then there’s the war in Iran, a war Trump argues was necessary to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Americans are hearing one thing after another: Iran is dangerous, Iran must be stopped, Iran could threaten us and we have to destroy its nuclear capability.
Yet the war continues. After a while, people start listening a little differently, asking questions and no longer automatically giving their leaders the benefit of the doubt.
And then there’s the president himself. Trump’s speeches can meander as he jumps from one subject to another and repeats many of the same slogans over and over.
For the hardcore Trump lovers, that’s OK. “That’s Trump,” they’ll say. “That’s just the way he talks.”
Call it “Trumpese”. His most devoted supporters will forgive almost anything because they believe him, trust him and love him, and in their eyes, Donald Trump can do no wrong.
But is that love strong enough to overcome the intensity of the people who hate him? For sure there are Trump supporters out there who are beginning to wonder about the president’s mental health.
Trump can tell everybody until he’s blue in the face that crime is down, the economy is booming, Americans are making more money and the United States is the greatest, most beautiful, most wonderful country in the known universe.
He can say illegal immigration has been stopped, the streets are safer, Americans are living the American Dream, gasoline prices will come down and Iran’s nuclear threat has been eliminated.
He can wan the public that if the Democrats win the mid-term America will be destroyed by communism.
But people ultimately look at their own lives.
They look at the price at the gas pump, the grocery bill and their bank accounts and then they wonder whether what the president is telling them matches the world they are living in.
Presidents have historically benefited politically when the country rallies together during a national crisis or foreign attack. But barring some extraordinary event between now and Election Day, Trump can only influence this election through the political landscape he now navigates.
Sure, there are Republicans that may not like Trump’s style but agree with his policies. But will they stick with the president through the current turmoil?
And that brings us right back to where we started: love vs. hate.
Trump’s supporters love him with a passion rarely seen in American politics, while his opponents despise him with equal passion.
Forget, for a moment, the television commercials, yard signs, consultants, polls, talking heads and billions of dollars being thrown into another American election.
When Election Day arrives, millions of Americans may walk into those voting booths carrying something far more powerful than a campaign brochure: an emotion!
Will America vote with its heat or it’s mind? That, dear readers, is the defining question.