Sedona Great Decisions Group will discuss “AI in Perspective: What Earlier Disruptive Technologies Tell Us” on Monday November 16 at the Community Library Sedona, 3250 White Bear Road. The meeting runs from 10 am until noon and is open to the public, free of charge.
Sedona resident Murray Cantor, PhD, a former mathematics professor and IBM Distinguished Engineer, will deliver this special presentation in clear, non-technical terms. Most of what people hear about AI is wrong, Cantor says. The “singularity believers” claim AI will soon surpass humans. More realistic, Cantor insists, is to view AI as the latest disruptive technology, like the steam engine, the power loom, the internet, and solar power. History shows what is likely to happen next.
“AI is capable but lacks judgment,” Cantor says. “Working with it is like having a brilliant yet clueless first-year graduate assistant. Use it for what it does well, and keep people responsible for the decisions that matter.” Cantor’s historical example of who bears the cost is the Luddites, skilled textile workers who lost their livelihoods to the power loom between 1811 and 1816. Society benefited from the looms, but workers’ real wages did not rise for about two generations. Cantor asks who bears the cost of the AI transition and how people will learn judgment when AI takes over the routine work where it was once learned.
Cantor then explains what an AI system is comprised of and why no one can fully say how it reaches an answer. He asks who pays for AI and whether it will pay off. The four largest cloud companies plan to spend about $700 billion on data centers in 2026, and the model companies have yet to turn a profit. Cantor compares the build-out to the fiber-optic boom of the late 1990s, when much of the cable sat unused for years.
Cantor goes on to explain in some detail why artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the singularity are unlikely with current technology and then speculates that quantum computing may be required to reach them.
Attendees will leave with three questions to ask about any AI claim. What was it trained on? Who is paying for it, and what do they want? How would anyone know if it were wrong?
Dr. Cantor earned a PhD in mathematics from UC Berkeley and taught mathematics at Duke and the University of Texas at Austin. He spent decades in industry, applying causal reasoning and decision support to large, complex development programs. He retired as an IBM Distinguished Engineer with fifteen patents. At IBM, he studied how new technologies are adopted and has followed AI since the early critiques at Berkeley and has programmed neural nets himself. He also writes the Healthy Skepticism papers on healthy-skepticism.com.
As the local chapter of the national Foreign Policy Association, Sedona Great Decisions Group has been meeting monthly since 1985 to consider a wide range of issues related to foreign affairs. Discussions are nonpartisan and educational, allowing a diversity of opinions to be shared honestly and constructively. The aim, in the words of FPA President Noel Lateef, is to help citizens “learn to discern truth from propaganda, participate meaningfully in public debate, and hold leaders accountable through informed engagement.”
All are welcome, but seating is limited. To reserve a place or get more information about membership, please contact Group Leader Charles Blum at chblum45@yahoo.com, or call 301-717-4210.
