By Tommy Acosta
Sedona AZ (April 19, 2020) – I noted a strange social distancing phenomena a few days ago while shopping at a local supermarket after having been herded by staff into the store like a compliant sheep.
I noticed there were shoppers wearing masks and others who were not and there seemed to be tension building in the air between the two factions.
No one was carrying on conversations and people were moving up and down the aisles more or less in silence except for this creepy voice over the intercom warning us to stay socially distanced.
I also noted that more people than usual were making eye contact with me and there was this strange sense of dis-balance in the air.
I found myself nodding to the un-masked as we passed each other, as I was not wearing any protection either No mask. No gloves: only my arrogant confidence the virus can never touch me.
It was like a silent pledge of brotherhood and kinship passed between us non-maskers like “Hey brother or sister, I’m not afraid either.” I felt a bond with the rebels refusing to do what they are told by the authorities.
The masked on the other-hand exuded a sense of “At least we are protected and will not die the horrible death that you people not wearing masks are sure to suffer.”
As I rolled through the aisles I became aware of cold stares coming from some of the masked as we passed each other. Not just cold but angry, reproachful looks, as if because they could not communicate their feelings with their complete face, it had to come from the eyes.
I was reminded about something I read about Muslim women in Saudi Arabia. Because of the veils they wear in public covering their nose and mouth, they have learned through the centuries to communicate expression and emotions with their eyes only.
I felt I was being judged and frowned upon by the masked shoppers and I began to feel a bit uncomfortable, almost guilty, as I recall.
I tried to shake it off but then I felt this cold chill flash up my spine as if some evil force was coming at me from behind. I turned and then I saw her.
She was middle aged, dressed head-to-toe in black. She was wearing a heavy-duty facemask, a hat and gloves. Under her jacket by her right hip I detected a bulge that could only be made by a side arm of considerable caliber.
Her eyes were like black coals with red dots in the middle, intense and burning with a hatred I have not felt directed towards me since my first marriage.
She was beaming her anger into my eyes. It was like “You son-of-a bitch how dare you expose us to your germs. You selfish bastard I should kill you!”
Or something even worse!
Luckily for me another mask-less shopper cut into her line of vision and she fixed her death stare on him, giving me enough time to slink into another aisle and beeline for the registers.
Even at the register I felt like the masked people waiting to check out were staring at me with the “Shame on you” look in their eyes.
Later, at home I reflected on my experience and came to the realization that:
- The majority of those who won’t wear the masks do not believe the government and have no fear of the virus whatsoever. And because they don’t see it as contagious or as fatal as the authorities say, they don’t fear giving it to anyone else.
- Many simply won’t wear the mask because they forget to put them on. It’s too much work and it messes with your hair. They don’t believe they are going to get it and even if they do it won’t kill them. They are too selfish to care if anyone gets it from them either.
- Other non-maskers simply won’t wear one because they feel no one has the right to tell them to do so and believe the government is stealing their Constitutional rights. Their freedom is more important than their own death or causing the death of others.
- In the masked category, you have the extremely worried and fearful donning the protective gear because they are terrified of getting it. These people will follow and obey all orders from above and most likely wipe down their groceries before bringing them into the house, immediately ripping their clothes off and throwing them into sanitized garbage bags before jumping into the shower.
- Other maskers who don’t fear getting it, wear protection because they are considerate of others and don’t want to spread it. Very nice people you will find mostly in Sedona.
- Some wear the masks because it makes them feel empowered, like the old stage-couch robbers and villains in the movies. Some masks look pretty cool when worn right. Like with bandanas and cut off T-shirt sleeves.
However, the experience in the supermarket still haunts me.
Now, when driving along 89A, I find myself counting those who wear the masks and those who don’t. At press time I would say 60 percent of those I have observed are not wearing any, yet.
Will there be a war on the streets between those refusing and those demanding? The masked and unmasked? Hope not.
As for me? I think I might just start wearing a mask from now on when out. Not so much because I fear getting the virus or spreading it but because I am scared of ever bumping into that masked heat-packing lady again.
Be wary all you un-maskers out there. Even the sheep carry guns in Arizona.
I very much agree. The maskers are “fear puppets.” The whole thing is exaggerated into an overwhelming illlusion. This is just a typical seasonal flu.
Tell that to the 41,000 plus U.S. Citizens who died in the past 5 weeks. Nothing typical about that!
So, put it in perspective. “CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.” Look it up.
Right now you can also be pretty sure any influenza like illness as well as comorbid conditions and deaths from pneumonia are getting overcategorized as deaths from COVID-19 by the CDC’s own guidelines.
The real question to ask is, where exactly do you draw the line, balancing any good the masks may do (and that is debatable) vs. the harm that is done to millions with a shutdown of businesses and jobs, schools, churches, etc. and the creation of this division between citizens? And concomitant rises in suicide, depression, stress-induced deaths, homelessness, abuse, divorce, alcoholism, etc., all well established by economists. And perhaps a permanent shift in our culture towards the already unhealthy trend of social isolation and too much time on screens. And on that note, I think I will step outside into the sun,… 🙂
You are aware that the 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually by the flu have already been surpassed in the past 3 months by COVID, right?
Tell that to my sister-in-law who is working 17 hours a day as a head nurse in a Connecticut ER, intubating those who struggle to breathe and has witnessed deaths of those who lose the fight and who lives daily in fear of taking it home to her husband and daughter.
My heart gos out to your sister in law.We have a friend who is nurse and she cant even hold her baby,Due to working as a nurse 15-18 hours a day..
Thank you for your post!!!
It really amazes me that so many people are just looking past the situation you describe, right in front of them, and think it doesn’t exist! Astonishing!
You are very much mistaken. Nothing is being exaggerated. You need to spend some time in a COVID ward or, better yet, be made to dig the graves of the dead. You might understand, then.
You do realize the masks are worn to protect OTHERS not yourself from the virus? Many of us have no masks which is a problem. I use another face covering. I am not afraid of catching the virus and I do not carry a gun. However, I do believe in wearing a face covering in public as a sign of consideration. Most cases of Covid-19 are mild. Some are severe. Some result in death. A little consideration and compassion go along way. Just my thoughts.
If you knew any health care workers on the east coast, you would be wearing your mask. The mask is to stop the spread of this disease either to you or from you. Anyone not wearing a mask should spend a day in an East Coast hospital where not only the patients are dying, but so are the health care workers. The conspiracy believers should get out from behind their safe desks and investigate in the field first hand.
We are in a war similar to Vietnam War – Lack of leadership, confusing government regulations, lack of adequate supplies, people protesting our government, major domestic infighting and no clear end in sight. The big difference is that we are being attacked at home as our president incites riots against the government which he is suppose to be leading as his citizens are dying by the tens of thousands – bizarre!!
Thank you Mr. Richardson for the educated response.
Everyone always compares this to NYC and the hotspots, assuming that Ir is coming everywhere to the same degree rather than listening to the diverse opinions of trained epidemiologists, many of whom disagree with the way this is being handled. One could also ask why it is so strong in NYC? Crowding? Stress? 5G installation lowering people’s health further, along with all the other health stressors?
Also, we should not define this as a political issue. People on both “sides” as well as in the middle have diverse views on this.
Zachary Richardson, where might I find evidence of President Trump inciting riots, as you claim, please?
I can’t help but smile at the people who wear masks that don’t fit properly – do they actually feel “protected,” or are they just complying to conformity? Very few masks actually protect “against” virus-sized particles, and the rest are merely placebos to help people keep their own germs to themselves. As any doctor will tell you, common sense and basic hygiene go a long ways to protect the healthy. Unless you are actually caring for the sick in close-proximity, then the professionals and care-givers wear the appropriate protection.
spot on! Or maybe just watch the late March video with the frontline NYC ICU doc who says your best bet is just to wash your hands a lot unless you are in a confined space for more than 15 min. with someone actively sick with it. Masks in public not needed, he said.
Leave it to Zach Richardson to go off on a political rant, like Sedona is NYC. Maybe if the NYC Mayor and the head health care person for the city had not encouraged using the subway, and business as normal in February the situation would not be as bad. Or the New Orleans Mayor who encouraged Mardi Gras after the president had suspended flights.
This creates little Demigod tyrants like the one that is running Michigan.
(MMQ) Monday morning quarterbacking ZACH is a fun thing to do if you are not in the leadership role with data coming from all directions. MMQ’s are always 100 % correct.
Tommy, sounds like a good start to a novel – well written. Funny how you can go to the other store in the Village, use common sense and not feel like you are a participant in the George Orwell’s book, 1984.
Hmm – who is taking this politically? – and now to make it personal is despicable and typical of the uninformed.
Zach’s Proverb – When they take it low – kick’em!
Obviously you have never served in the military or at least effectively.
During battle, information comes at you from all directions and the role of the leader is to sort through it all, make a decision, and lead on. Effective leaders cannot be changing they minds every other day and personally insult their subordinates or even have key leaders compete with each other as we are seeing the state governors doing today. We need a unified direction like in any battle.
I do not know much about the mayor of New Orleans, but if you are claiming that Bill de Blasio is a good leader who made a simple COVID19 mistake, you are confused. He is an ongoing prime example of an ineffective leader who made a bad situation into a travesty.
Yes to Mask or not to Mask that is the question…
Nope Zach, never served in the military so your weak attacks are pointless. I am as honorary commander for the 944th Fight Wing at Luke AFB, so it has been been an honor and a pleasure to interface with command not only on understanding ongoing training and their needs, understanding the budgeting and mission objectives and helping them through the Booster club which I am a member – and you could be too – to raise money for those who have lost their jobs in their civilian occupations that still have an obligation to the 944th.
All military leaders get as “A” for MMQ. – That’s why MMQ is only for arm chain keyboard cruisers.
As far as your data on NYC and the mayor – as usual you need a history lesson.
If you don’t read anything else today, please read this article. It is full of ‘FACTS’ and data that cannot be refuted because it is all on “public record.” I would say it is unbelievable but sadly with the corrupt media and Democrat politicians, it is easy to believe.
It Really Isn’t A Mystery Why New York Has So Many COVID-19 Cases
New Yorkers are dying at a much higher rate than all other Americans. There are almost 45,000 documented case with nearly 600 deaths, which is about one half the entire number of cases in the entire United States. New Yorkers also account for nearly half of all U.S. deaths.
Some are saying that this high incidence is due to the large population there and their close proximity to one another. Surely this does have some influence on the statistics; however, there is another factor that the media is hiding from you.
After President Trump declared that the coronavirus was a dangerous disease and stated that we were facing a public health emergency, and announced quarantines and major travel restrictions, including halting all flights from China, New Yorkers scoffed at his remarks and called him a racist, bigot. They went on to say that he was dangerously scaring the citizenry with unsubstantiated information and should be ignored.
Here are a few facts that might enlighten you as to why New York is the epicenter of the coronavirus and is suffering so many fatalities.
Jan. 29… VOX published:“This is not going to be a deadly pandemic — that is FOX News trying to scare you by doing Trump’s bidding.”
Jan. 31… The Washington Post: “Thinking that the coronavirus is dangerous or deadly is totally irrational.”
Feb. 1… The Washington Post: “Get a grip; coronavirus is no threat!”
Feb. 3… The Washington Post: “We should be wary of an aggressive coronavirus response.”
Feb. 18… New York Times:“Fear is spreading faster than the coronavirus unnecessarily.”
Feb. 21… New York Times:“Racist accounts and ignorant attacks on Asians are a result of the coronavirus scare by Trump.”
Feb. 23… CNN: “Trump’s racist scare of the coronavirus is causing unnecessary worry.”
On Feb. 2… the New York City Health Commissioner, Oxiris Barbot, said,“The coronavirus risks are very low and New York’s preparedness is very high, so don’t miss out on having fun and doing things — go to the Lunar New Year parade, ride the bus, take the subway, go to a restaurant for dinner; don’t worry.”
Then on Feb. 9, New York City Council member stated on Twitter,“In powerful show of defiance of the coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual Lunar New Year parade — chants ‘be strong Wuhan’. If you are staying away, you are missing out!”
Also on Feb. 9, the New York City Health Commissioner, Oxiris Barbot, said,“Today our city is celebrating the Lunar New Year parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultured tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and don’t change any plans due to misinformation spreading about coronavirus.”
Another speaker followed her and said, “This misinformation was from Trump and FOX News who were just being racists against Chinese.”
Then New York State Senator, John Liu said,“There’s no need to panic or stop doing what you want and if you say that this virus is bad, you are a bigot as some are saying that it came from China, and that’s a lie.”
New York State Senator Brian Kavanagh said,“Trump and the Republicans are spreading misinformation about the potential dangers of the virus. Don’t stay home — go to the Chinatown festivities and celebrate the Lunar New Year, and watch the parade and enjoy yourselves. Don’t listen to FOX News; someone on there said that the disease is like a plague, which is laughable.”
On March 2… New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said,“I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives and go out on the town; go to the movies or to dinner — enjoy yourselves.”
Then again on March 11… Mayor de Blasio repeated that mantra and encouraged New Yorkers to “Go have fun and don’t think about the virus because it is all hype.”
Now that hundreds of people are dying from COVID-19, these same people and many other crazy leftists are saying that it is Trump and FOX News’ fault for the viruses extreme spread as they didn’t alert the nation about the danger of the disease or take action soon enough.
Mayor de Blasio and Governor Cuomo are saying that Trump has abandoned New York even though he is sending much more help to them than any other state by far. Also, in 2015, Cuomo had the opportunity to increase his states emergency medical supplies, especially the chance to buy 15,000 ventilators for a great price and he refused.
The Washington Post and most cable channels are demanding that President Trump and his task force be taken off the air because they are scaring the nation and are spreading lies about the virus and the media. The Democrats want Trump removed from the reporting to the nation because it might give him an advantage for the election as people might see him as a leader. WHAT?
The WHO is a somewhat ineffective organization and was late in declaring COVID-19 a pandemic. This probably was partially due to their protectionism of China. China all but controls the WHO.
President Trump’s agencies have gone overboard to help all states but particularly New York because of the high numbers there. Each state is responsible for their own equipment and how it is used but the federal government tries to assist the states when necessary and possible. The U.S. government sent 2,000 ventilators to New York last week and another 4,400 earlier this week along with hundreds of thousand of masks, and when hospitals complained that they were short of equipment, they were told of the equipment shipments, and stated that they had not received them. Upon investigation, it was discovered that the equipment was sitting in a warehouse because the New York authorities had not distributed it. Total incompetence!
And now New Orleans is becoming a new epicenter with a marked increase of COVID-19 cases, and the ineffectual mayor is blaming Trump because he didn’t shut the Mardi Gras down. More than 1.5 million people crowded into dirty New Orleans on Feb 25 to catch beads and the coronavirus.
Mayor LaToya Cantrell said that Trump didn’t take the pandemic serious, so neither did she. That’s after President Trump announced quarantines and major travel restrictions, including halting all flights from China on Jan. 31, and declared a public health emergency.
HONORARY COMMANDER? Whose Honor?
I served the US Navy as an Aviator for 21 years.
I think you just proved my point!
Congratulations, thank you for your service. Seriously. I never had the opportunity.
Honorary commanders are a long standing Air Force program that support the airmen in numerous ways and act as a PR link to the civilian world.
But your demeanor is showing, and it isn’t very becoming.
I am also an aviator – and have been for 33 years, and still am. But changing the subject as you attempted to do, ignoring the data that blew away your comments doesn’t look to good for an arm chair MMQB.
But continue the diversion.
When I said leadership – I was not referring to just our President.
It would be nice if our leaders said that we made some mis-steps at the start and we need to now all get together and fight this virus. Instead they are ALL defending their incompetency thinking that we are idiots and do not see through their cover-ups. Then we have to interpret or misinterpret their intentions and start arguing over who is right or wrong. We are spending more time fighting among ourselves than fighting this damn virus.
My son just finished Navy OCS to become a pilot and one of the leadership traits they instill in their young officers is not to shed blame on others. Take responsibility and then move on.
Wash your hands often!
Congratulations on OCS. Great achievement. My son-in law was an A10 driver out of Davis Monthan for 10 years. Now SWA pilot. Intimately familiar with how tough it is.
The original post was on masks – and now a bit wandering. Leadership, corporate, government or military is not easy. I have done it, been personally responsible for 1000 human beings and their success, and to some degree still am today in another capacity. You take what you have, get the best help around you and make a decision. In some cases that decision path needs to be modified as circumstances change.
You can always go back and analyze later.
It is what we do today for our community, businesses and people in need that counts. There have been programs going for the last couple of weeks for food banks, Verde Valley Sanctuary, take out and other organizations in need that we need to pay attention to. Tough times for all. That’s what the focus needs to be on.
Let’s do it.
The ten top reasons for wearing a mask:
01. Concealing identity when committing any nefarious deed such as robbing a bank.
02. Attending a masked ball..
03. Scaring people in dark alleys at night.
04. Attempting to make your self more attracted to others.
05. Performing surgery.
07. To hide a horribly transfigured countenance.
08. If you are fighting a very smokey fire.
09. Protection from prolonged exposure to the midday sun.
10. To protect yourself from unwanted interactions with obsessive mask wearers.
WHAT IF …
? What if the virus, created by the bad guys is now under the control of the good guys?
? What if … the ‘lockdown’ was initally advisory ‘cos of the virus but is now absolutely necessary for genuine and beneficial reasons?
? What would be the point of shooting up an empty school or nightclub?
? What would be the point of running a car at high speed alond the pavement/sidewalk?
? What would be the point of shooting up an empty cinema?
? What would be the point of any such FF when there is no-one to get hurt?
? What if … under cover of this ‘lockdown’ the swamp, as promised, is being drained?
? Suppose you all were asked, “Listen up, we are going to begin raiding hundreds of places to rescue children and apprehend the evil ones so would you all be so kind as to stay ondoors until we’re done?”
? First of all, the majority of folks would laugh and ask “Oh yeah, why do you really want us out of the way?” (That the majority has not questioned but has gone into compliant mode is telling you something).
? Second, in telling us of their plans they’d also be telling the enemy and that wouldbe stupid.
? Third, while everyone is focussed on heroically defending their freedoms or less heroically, giving ’em up, the good guys can get on with the the most important job of all – rescuing the children and apprehending the evil doers.
? What if that is exactly what is happening?
? Would you still complain?
? I’m not stating that the above IS what is happenning. I’m just asking, what if that IS what is happening? Would your feelings about the situation change?
? As it happens I reckon that all o’ this and more is not only possible but also most probable. Indeed, I ‘believe’ this is exactly what is happening.
? If folks don’t agree, that’s okay, it gives us room for dicussion.
? Questions? Go here and go figure:
Mr. or Ms. Intbell, the magnitude of your innocence is almost incomprehensible. How could you be so naive to believe this upstart group of jokers calling themselves Q-Anon heads could ever defeat the firmly entrenched one-percenters who have been ruling this planet since forever?
You guys are living in a fantasy world of illusional delusions like little kids believing in Santa. Forget it! There is no such thing as you claim cleaning the swamp. The alligators have already eaten you but you people are too dumb to know it yet.
You believe in this fantasy hoping one day your knight in shining armor will destroy the evil serpent squeezing the earth dry. You are out of your minds. You people believe anything served by those who created Q to further confuse you.
“Q” stands for quarantined and that’s where the hopes of your ilk reside. The good guys are good. Yes, good for nothing! You can’t win. Your day is done. Trump is but a pumped chump these guys are using to divide the country to make it that much easier for the bad guys to solidify their rule forever. What is sad is that there are so many of you out there grasping straws fawning over the president not realizing he is the Pied Piper leading you into the chains you will all be soon tethered to.
Pfffttt! Not one sound argument – just four paragraphs of childish insults.
This place really is going downhill.
In reading all the many comments about masking I concluded most of them pretty valid and without exception heart felt and perhaps well fact based too.
I, however, found in them a tone of anger and even hatred. Not enough about curing the COVID-19 disease and avoiding a potential disaster.
I heard good people fighting each other. Leadership was not present.
Somehow, It came to me that I was hearing a honking noise and amazingly it came from our White House. The top dog there seems always to greet reasoned opinions, as from Sedona Biz, by widely flaring his lips to issue loud honks to gain attention for what he is about to say.
Now who do you suppose I have in mind ??
This is the most scholarly article I’ve been able to find re: cloth face masks. It does recommend wearing a cloth face mask but also states: “In one study, a mask that used 16 layers of handkerchief fabric was able to filter out 63 percent of 300-nanometer-sized particles. (The coronavirus is between 50 to 200 nanometers in diameter.)…Wearing a cloth mask with that many layers would be uncomfortable and may ’cause some to pass out,’ the researchers wrote in the letter.”
Best to keep your distance it seems.
Tomas Pueyos series of articles, beginning March 12, have been downloaded 60 millions times, translated into 40 languages, and are considered one of the finest sources of data-driven analysis on the varied aspects of COVID-19 public policy worldwide.
“Learning How to Dance: Part 1: A Dancing Masterclass, or What We Can Learn from Countries Around the World”,
looks at how the most successful countries (China; Taiwan; South Korea; Singapore) have dealt with and are continuing to deal with what will prove to be the trickiest part of dealing with the ongoing problems of the coronavirus pandemic: safely reopening societies, minimizing risk and additional outbreaks/deaths, and restoring some semblance of economic activity.
Please understand I am not making an argument for anything like the kind of authoritarian & draconian methods used by China to contain their explosive outbreak. I am not here to defend their reprehensible lack of transparency, failure to share vital information with the rest of the world.
But they, and the other East Asian countries (democracies) mentioned above, have succeeded in gaining an upper hand over their epidemics, and are gradually, carefully reopening their societies.
Take a minute and read this incredibly informative article. The incredible lengths to which these governments have gone to–using quarantine, testing, contact tracing, and, yes, MASKS–to get control and keep their citizens safe as possible are absolutely staggering.
As the title would imply, a masterclass in the Dance we all will have to live with, and take part in, over the next year or so until effective treatment and/or a vaccine are developed.
These East Asian countries had the experience of both the first SARS epidemic and the MERS epidemic that served as a visceral experience to prepare them for the stringent and disciplined response necessary to bring COVID
even remotely under control.
It’s a level of social intrusion, that many Americans would be extremely uncomfortable with, but in truth, folks, we have survived a civil war, a great Depression, and various other extreme periods where temporary suspension of our “freedoms’ necessated by crisis have been accomplished.
we still have our guns, our freedom of speech, movement, press, etc.
and by the way, SP, if COVID-19 achieves an even normal infected level of seasonal flu 30-50 million), you could expect a death toll of 300K-500K (1% case fatality rate). COVID-19
COVID-19 is far more contagious than flu (Rnaught factor of 2-3) and if we ended up with total infection rates similar to the 1918 flu (50% of 331 million US pop now), you could be looking at a death toll of 3.3 million Americans.
That is why the entire world, all the health experts, epidemiologists, all governments, are taking this as deadly serious as they are.
there are no ‘sides’; ultimately there will just be competent and less competent responses. so far the countries that have acted the fastest, with the most stringent measures are the ones that are succeeding in both keeping their death tolls down and now, being able to safely, carefully, reopen their societies.
Germany, Denmark, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Iceland . . .
We’ll see how it plays out but the countries that have acted the latest, the most indecisively, and the most sporadically, will likely end up with the worst results.
Great Britain, United States, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Brazil . . .
Hard to argue with numbers, the US has had absolutely the worst results on the planet.
And we continue to argue about measures taken to insure our lives.
Do you all really thing the economy at this point is going to rebound bigly?
Global demand is down not because of shelter in place measures, it’s because people are rightly cautious/afraid for their survival.
REad this if you want to get an idea of what the end result is for people dying of COVID-19 (from a nurse on the frontlines):
And get back to me.
Never has it been more important to have the best and the most information you could have to deal with an unprecedented public health crisis.
If Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and Drs. Phil, Oz and Drew are your sources
of 411 in these troubled times, then you are putting your life at risk.
In Sedona, we, for now, appear to have the luxury of making silly arguments about our jeopardized freedoms, etc.
Numbers are creeping up. People continue to travel to Sedona and will even more so as we foolishly open our economy long before any states have even come close to the goalposts set by our CDC.
Fourteen days of declining numbers at a minimum. Virtually all states are still hitting their highest daily case/death numbers still.
NO one wants the economic inactivity we’re all experiencing. No wants to accept goverment help, or to have to struggle to get it, and to make ends meet.
But people value their lives. Look at the polls. A sizeable majority worry we will lift restrictions too soon.
the public health officials, doctors, nurses, epidemiologists, the computer models all agree . . .
Making this into another left/right; liberal/conservative bit of polarized bullshit, with a lack of good solid evidence/data/analysis is LIFE THREATENING.
I wish the computer models, doctors and nurses and all the above did agree, but they do not. And one of the biggest reasons is that one size does not fit all. When, for example, you shut down the entire state of Nevada when about 3% of the land mass of the state is effected and the rest is sparsely populated and is NOT – it is past ridiculous to make these statewide mandates.
Especially the doctors. Politicians – who think they are smart because they got elected – shut down all or most elective surgeries. So now hospitals, especially small clinics, are losing nurses, staff and other critical personnel. And some may not make it. So those waiting on a knee replacement, or the 100s of other elective surgery operations may find themselves waiting a very long time as theses people are just not going to be there to start back up. A major concern. A hospital in Salem, OR where my daughter works was just laid off – perfect example.
I hope you are one of the lucky ones that is not part of the 22 million now unemployed. If so, I suggest a major contribution to the local food bank. They are getting slammed. We had a program a couple weeks ago that was successful, and had 4 truckloads of donations go to Verde Valley Sanctuary last week as domestic violence is increasing rapidly.
Yesterday we raised quite a bit for YFAC, who cares for local women and children who have been physically or emotionally abused or neglected -or- who have been sexually assaulted, and/or have witnesses traumatic violence in their own homes or communities here in Yavapai Co. YFAC gives traumatized children stuffed “pets” for comfort.
Be VERY careful that we do not lose more people as a result of emotional and economic hardships than directly form the virus.
Have lost a huge part of my income. Working class all the way here. Barely making the rent.
And my wife is on the front line every day helping keep Sedona fed. She has to go thru a daily disinfection routine to keep her 66 yr old, male, well-developed coronary heart disease, husband safe (16%-18% case fatality rates).
Thanks, Michael, for your food donations to the Sanctuary. We’ve upped our contributions to the extent that we can afford it to the very same bank.
Oh BTW: choosing sparsely populated Nevada as your single example of governmental overreach is a bit of a low hanging fruit pick, don’t ya think?
So far, in looking at today’s figures, only one state in the entire country (Washington, acted early, acted decisively) can claim fourteen days of declining new cases/deaths.
Florida (wants to, and will likely re-open more than just its beaches soon), has declining cases (not deaths) but it still had 800 new cases yesterday.
And they are only about middle of the pack for per capita testing.
Arizona is 44th in per capita testing.
Many of the other states champing at the bit to re-open are in the bottom 15% for per capita testing and come no where close to the declining figures deemed appropriate for a reasonable shot at a safe re-opening.
Remember too, Wuhan didn’t reopen for almost a month after they achieved single digit new cases/deaths.
No way this thing is anything but the toughest collective experience we all we live thru. Economics, public health, life itself, food on the table, roof over our heads . . .
But we’re tough. Tough enough to get thru WWII, Great Depression, Vietnam protests, race riots, OJ, Great Recession . . . Barack Obama (you!!); Donal Trump (me) . . .
Nurses, doctors, recovered patients that have been in ICU for an average of 17 days . . . they’re getting thru.
We got it easy in Red Rock Country.
When you see me with my mask on, just realize I’m at high risk for getting it, could have it, might be asymptommatic, and am just being considerate of you in keeping my germs to myself. (Also, it serves as a constant reminder to stop touching my new covid beard!!)
Derek, thanks for the reply. Good comments and we are all still working the charities.
Regarding the states, Nevada is just one, there was US rep from Oregon, same situation, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, N. Dakota, Eastern Washington etc. all fall into the areas where you can easily open up rural areas, and do a delay on the more densely packed areas. Good test bed for best practices before you start the other areas.
Jury still out on Sweden, deaths were a little higher than other countries in the region but long term the total population may have a much higher resistance than their neighbors.
Thank you wife, front line work is always tough in these situations. It’s the mid to small hospitals I am most concerned about as they are not getting COVID cases and are prevented from doing regular business.
Not sure about Sweden, Michael. I know they have become a bit of a cause celebre for conservative media (highly respected National Review), but their results so far are pretty dismal.
Sweden, no mitigation protocols, as of today:
16,004 cases/1937 deaths
next door neighbor Norway (early strict mitigation protocols), today:
7,338 cases/187 deaths
I understand the reasoning behind Sweden’s approach. Similar to Great Britain initially, they are going for maximum infection rates and herd immunity over time.
UK decided it would be too costly.
For herd immunity to begin to take effect, at least 50% of a population has to have been infected and recovered.
Leaving aside still unanswered questions of true immunity for the recovered, how long it will last, and reinfection, just the cost alone of having 50% of a population of 10.23 million infected, with a case fatality rate of around 1%, would mean Sweden has to be OK with a death toll of 51,150.
That’s provided the CFR ultimately proves to be what consensus now thinks as around 1%.
That’s a pretty steep toll on a nation that size.
Also, must consider that their total ICU capacity is incredibly small. And pursuing a herd immunity strategy would likely mean their health care system would be overwhelmed for quite some time.
NO easy answers to this. Requires the best minds and drawing on the most successful strategies so far.
From what my research tells me, the harder the initial hammer of mitigation protocols, using the most advanced tracing technology, with the most community cooperation, leads to the earliest and safest resumption of economic activity as the Dance proceeds until we find an answer in the form of treatment or vaccine.
I really do hope you’ve taken some time to read the latest Tomas Pueyos article I linked earlier.
Google his second in the series, “The Hammer and the Dance: What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time,” to see what a safely negotiated future can look like.
Best science yet on why everybody should wear a mask:
Everybody should wear a mask: You can infect other people before you know you’re sick. 45% of all infections happen before people are symptomatic.
Virus is transmitted via droplets, surfaces, and aerosol clouds. Homemade masks, surgical masks have all now been proven to significantly reduce all three methods of transmission.
There’s a reason why the most successful countries in the world have mandated public masking. It works.
New high this morning for daily increase in covid cases in Arizona: 310. Total confirmed cases: 5769. and growing every day.
Arizona still in the lowest 10% for per capita testing.
Not wearing a mask isn’t an act of defiant, anti-authority, freedom-loving rebellion; it’s quite possibly a virus spreading, inconsiderate act of cruelty that could get someone else killed. You want even the thought of that going forward?
I kinda thought we were all in this together and we’d make it thru because we all cared about each other. Perhaps I was wrong.
Derek von Briesen, when almost ‘overnight’, 120+ countries decide to do this thing … does not that raise suspicions?
Think of the logistics and the time it would take to get ’em all on the same page to take the same action at (near enough) the same time?
This has taken months in it’s planning.
This being so, should not our suspicions be aroused?
Hmmmmmm. To be thus coordinated requires planning. Are you suggesting an invisible hand at work here?
Not suggesting, Tommy; reckon that is spot on!
Both intbel and briesen are head over heels in a hysterical race with each other to be number one on my list in Sedona aiming to out rank the big honker in the White House.
Tiring waste of media spacing and insulting to the world of donkies.
A valuable contribution, John. The donkies, oops, I mean, the donkeys thank you.
Read some of the links, my friend; lots of data-driven science that might save your life.
Honky honk to you too Derek, you make the grade, boy.
The just released CDC sponsored comments by Dr. Erickson and colleague say that masks and confinement into your home are actually making us more prone to the diseases which kill us. The premise from these immunologists/doctors is that our immunology is strengthened by exposure to virus, germs, etc.and so exposure to them as is obtained out doors is beneficial.. Maybe the 6 foot rule is the main process to our good health.
This ought to stir things up into a snarling uproar.
. . . and y’all be the judge. Anything here indicate “CDC sponsored?”
And I’ll bet that this bit of non-epidemiological statistical analysis by a couple of Kern County docs is going to be debunked over the next couple of days.
No snarling uproar, John, just a wait and see. Math looks pretty suspect but I’ll keep my eye out and report back to you.
Meanwhile, a million U.S. cases by Monday, and 60,000 deaths by month’s end.
Tell me that last time a flu overwhelmed countries like Italy, Spain, UK, China, US in the way that covid-19 has?
Hey there boy,I used “sponsored” just as the CDC introduction indicated.
Did you even listen to the two immunologist/doctors speak? I think not.
Maybe you regularly dispute professionals because your ego demands it ?
Why cite those links and not directly state the two doctors are just feeble minded quacks and you are much better qualified than them on the subject. Honk.
Your manipulative diverging failed as most do.Having trouble keeping on subject ?
Yes, let’s see if this gets a push back or not.
John, perhaps you could dial it down a bit on the personal attacks. I’m just putting up links to influential analyses with loads of data and science.
No ego; never said a thing about “feeble-minded quacks;” your words, not mine.
I’ll stand by my own ‘opinion’ at this point that I think their math will likely be debunked over the next week or so.
But if that isn’t the case, I’ll be happy to link to the confirmation of their thesis by other scientists/doctors/statisticians, etc.
Their numbers go against everything known so far, everything in published medical journals, etc.
UNtil the math has been ‘peer-reviewed’ and verified or debunked, you & I will just have to agree to disagree.
Apologies if I didn’t take all that time out of my day to view an hours worth of briefing. I just gave it five minutes for you, to see what your point about CDC sponsorship was all about. Couldn’t find a thing. Figured if it was part of an ‘introduction’ then five minutes would just about do it.
How about simply providing a link (as in actual evidence) to support your claim that they are ‘CDC sponsored?” Tell us a what time point in the 51:55 briefing that this is revealed.
Both news sources are reputable Bakersfield-based in the heart of Kern County. They say nothing about “CDC sponsorship.” If these doctors research was “CDC sponsored” wouldn’t the news include this?
I am not judging anyone who wants to wear a mask, The mask is not a preventive.
I myself wear a mask and gloves, It makes me feel safe, with all the unknowns and not knowing if we are even carrying this virus, It helps me to know that I would not be spreading it!!
I have 2 family members who are working at Home Depot, They are exhausted with all the rude comments, and people not staying 6 feet away..They ask people to step back and they get told to go f themselves and worse.
I wish people would just respect everyone’s space and comply with what the stores and employees want..
For those who don’t wear a mask or gloves, I just stay away..That is my choice. No harm done!
OK, I will dial it down if you do too.
Your last letter was more of the same avoiding the issue tactic you consistently employ. Psychologists say this is typical in narcissism sickness.
What specifically is it about the two immunologist/doctor reports you disagree with or find incorrect ? Well if you only listened 5 minutes to their message, it’s no wonder you do not know what this is about.
Hardly professional. Or is it you have a problem with paying attention ?
Try not floundering around . I prefer focusing.
I’ll try one more time, John, and then leave it at that.
I have suggested there may be problems with the ‘science’ you have presented. But I haven’t attacked you.
Implying I suffer from “narcissism sickness” isn’t what I would call dialing it down. Armchair psychoanalysis at its worst.
As I have stated at least three times, I find the math suggesting that covid-19 has a case fatality rate of .03% as faulty.
I have asked you specifically you show with evidence where the CDC can be shown to have sponsored their research.
But you won’t provide that evidence.
They make an argument that Sweden and Norway are similar in outcomes despite markedly different approaches–little or no mitigation for Sweden; early and stringent protocols for Norway. I look at the numbers and think this is spurious.
Numbers this morning:
Sweden: 18,640 total cases; 2194 deaths; 9357 tests per million.
Norway: 7,499 total cases; 201 deaths; 28,614 tests per million.
For me, this does not any similarities at all. Sweden has 2.485 times as many cases, 11 times as many deaths, and have tested at a rate three times that of Sweden.
If you’d like me to bug out John, just go ahead and insult me personally one more time, stubbornly refuse to provide any evidence to back the Bakersfield docs thesis and you got it.
There’s a reason that scholarly research is published in ‘peer-reviewed’ journals: the science has to stand up to scrutiny by the scientific community. Just calling a press conference, inviting the local press, to publicize what is at best a theory at this point isn’t proven science by a long shot.
Could it be that their relatively empty chain of urgent care facilities could use some more business?
Since they are advancing an argument for an end to quite a lot of the social distancing that allowed California to be at the very top of successful responses, in the face of most science regarding infection rates, case fatality rates, and the public health officials in Kern County are skeptical at best, my point is let’s wait and see what others in the scientific community have to say.
Peer reviewed is a scientific norm, John. You know what they say about opinions without evidence: everyone’s got one . . .
Just chime in folks, and let us know if you’ve taken the time to read this highly informative article/analysis on all the latest science behind the efficacy of wearing masks.
Can’t hurt anyone to take ten minutes to look at data from the most successful countries, super slow motion videos of how far droplets travel in air from coughs, talking, singing . . . and how long those aerosol droplets can last, how much ends up on surfaces.
And most importantly, how much even the simplest masks significantly reduce the amount of virus shed. You can be walking down a market aisle, trying to stay 6′ away (almost impossible) and literally walk thru a cloud of aerosol droplets from someone talking and not even know it.
Not trying to be alarmist here. No axe to grind. Just trying to pass along good 411 so that people can look at the science and make up their own minds.
Old saying from English philosopher Herbert Spencer (he coined “Survival of the Fittest” as well):
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance — that principle is contempt prior to investigation.
Never hurts to read a bit especially with so much misinformation going around.
Pretty sure most would not ingest or inject a disinfectant product without a bit of additional research but I’m guessing we’ll read about some that do. There are actually hucksters out there marketing bleach as a cure-all for lots of things including covid.
Still floundering, Derek.
You offer opinion and predictions, not pertinent facts disputing the two immunologists statement that immune capacity is so important. Instead you wander around throwing unrelated facts hoping their shear weight is persuasive..
I am retired and one of the abilities I was praised for was being an expert court witness. So evaluating claims and testimony with our lawyers was a top component for that ability. Just as was presenting facts that have meaning and are acceptable and pertinent. Being a professional engineer was helpful.
Sorry to be blunt. You get derailed too often.
By the way you missed it again. I was not diagnosing your mental state with reference to narcissism. I was describing your tactic.
Got it ?
If your ego is bruised or in shambles that’s your problem.
Derek you fussed about me using sponsored well here’s something for you to digest.
Just happened to find it .
The first words page one of the immunologists statement are, “Get the latest
information from the CDC COVID-19 ”
And the definition of sponsored, verb form , ” assume responsibility for “.
How’s that for a road bump ?
Talk about obfuscating.
You may have been an expert testimony dream for lawyers, but you know damn well that your original use of this statement, “The just released CDC sponsored comments by Dr. Erickson and colleague,” which I criticized, was done to give that now discredited bit of junk science a kind of official gloss resulting from the implication that the CDC had sponsored their research.
You can try and talk your way out of it, my friend, but you’d be better off just saying you were being sarcastic in your original post and that the rest of us ‘fake’ folk out here were misinterpreting you.
Balderdash. Poppycock. Bull pucky of the highest order.
In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they
“emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”
By all means, John, if you can find a reputable science source that verifies their findings, please forward a link.
Sorry to say, Laura Ingraham does not qualify as a “peer review!!”
How stupid are our leaders?
Let’s just dwell on the fact they shut down our economy before they told people to wear masks.
Archie, our DC manager and I, after a session with bureaucrats, headed straight to the nearest bar to drown away the bad taste, we have never recovered from their rank stupidity.
You found an open bar? wow. We’ve had neighborhood beer and wine parties lately because the Sundowner is closed.
Yes, but in Washington 15 years ago. When things were tons better.
Derek, you need to open your dictionary to study the definition for sponsor. And reread what the CDC says re the doctors claims. I’m amazed that you are so absolutely stupid in your evaluation of their claim .
You are again employing the typical diversionary manipulating tactic of someone mentally afflicted with narcissism. So maybe that really is your headwind.
Using Laura and the ER associations prejudiced comment about the doctor’s claim all support your mental status fully. No facts at all Just useless quack quack talk. So you even think ERs know more than immunologists do about the immune systems in our bodies – – aw common you cannot really mean that or do you.
Are you also saying the CDC doesn’t understand the issue ?
Sorry boy you still are still so far off the track where we always find you.
What was your career background? I’m convinced you were a duck farmer.
Return to your closet, suck your thumb and no more duck talk.
Way to dial it down, John,
[“I’m amazed that you are so absolutely stupid]
[“the typical diversionary manipulating tactic of someone mentally afflicted with narcissism.”]
[“I’m convinced you were a duck farmer.”]
For once, just cite what the CDC has said regarding Dr. Erickson’s claims.
Funny too, quoting you, “So you even think ERs know more than immunologists do about the immune systems in our bodies” . . .
Dr. Erickson is an former emergency doctor with no epidemiological training.
So, no, I don’t think this particular former emergency room doctor knows more than dozens of epidemiologists who have weighed in on this bit of junk science.
So the challenge to you is, demonstrate, show, with evidence/citations just exactly where any peer-level scientific analysis has shown what appears from my research to be a pretty thoroughly debunked bit of psuedo-science.
Without going into it, a masters degree in research from one of the finer universities in the country, thank you very much.
Done with you.
To quote one of the preeminent social scientists of our time: “Don’t need a weather vane to see which way the wind blows.”
That said, you, kind sir, ARE A TROLL!! All my research tells me so.
Well Derek is at it again. More or the narcissism’s tactic. Don’t answer legitimate technical questions. Instead quack quack away and say I hate you cause your are so mean. And throw in a few falsehoods while at it for good measure.
So you spent research time somewhere studying what ? Really ???
Like I told you. Go back to the dictionary where you will, if capable of reading. read what epidemiology and immunology mean. One deals with wide ranging sicknesses the other how the body’s immune functions to cope with those sicknesses. Same general medical zones but entirely different sectors.
Did the research you were a part of teach you to conflict and diversify like the mentally inhibited so often practice. Go see a doctor of psychology my boy and get well.
Guess we agree on one thing. You are not intelligent nor competent enough to continue to exchange thoughts with me on the issue I raised.
Quack quack away in your closet when you can remove your thumb from your mouth.
Let’s talk again after they let you out.
Still making ad hominem attacks and . . .
In case you forgot, John, what’s at question here is Dr. Erickson’s assertion that the infection fatality rate of covid-19 is ..03%, according to them roughly equivalent to a seasonal flu.
Seasonal flu infection fatality rates (not case fatality rates) are somewhere in the range of .005%-.0025% (look it up).
So their rigorously debunked number (.03%) is at minimum six times higher than flu.
If you look at the most comprehensively tested and analyzed areas in the world–Wuhan, China (.05%); South Korea (.75%); New York city (.05%-.08%); Diamond Princess (1.2%)–you get ranges that are from 10-24 times more lethal than seasonal flu.
Do some research yourself, my friend, and get back to me. Opinions, as they say, with no evidence/citations, are like assholes: everyone has one.
Do something different, my friend. Surely all those expert witness court appearances must have taught you something about arguments and evidence.
And stop calling me boy. After 66 years, sir, one would think a little more respect is in order.
Sometimes the fractional % conversions get me.
Dr. Erickson: .03%
South Korea .75%
Diamond Princess: 1.2%
Real men admit their mistakes.
Your turn. Mr. Expert Witness!!