Forbidden Island

By  Tommy Acosta

Sedona, AZ — There is a difference in this world between those who read between the lines and those who don’t.

Some people wait for events to happen and then react. Others watch closely and see them unfolding before they occur.

Such may be the case with the current U.S. incursion into Iran and the systematic demolition of its cities, infrastructure, and oil industry.

If one reads between the lines, it is not hard to imagine what may come next: boots on the ground on the blood-rich soil of Iran.

But seasoned students of warfare know something important. Invading Iran directly through its mainland would be an extraordinarily costly and foolish undertaking.

Instead, the logical target is the island of Kharg, a seven -by-eight square mile island off the coast of Iran from where Iran exports 90 percent of its oil.

That may explain why amphibious landing ships and thousands of additional Marines are reportedly moving into the region.

From a purely strategic standpoint, the plan would be straightforward. Neutralize whatever Iranian security forces are stationed on the island. Destroy or repel any small craft attempting to approach from the mainland. Secure the oil facilities quickly and decisively.

Iran would face an impossible dilemma.

Launching large-scale missile or drone strikes on Kharg could destroy the very oil infrastructure that represents one of the country’s most valuable economic lifelines — its own “golden calf.” Their hands would be tied.

Flying troops in would be suicidal. Sailing reinforcements would be nearly impossible without a strong navy. Small boats would be vulnerable and easily picked off.

Historically, Kharg Island is more than an oil terminal. It has long been home to ancient archaeological remains and has served as an important trading hub for centuries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharg_Island

If such a move were made, the strategic logic would be simple: take Kharg and force Iran into a position where it must negotiate to get it back.

Energy companies would certainly remember that the island’s facilities were once operated by foreign oil interests before they were expropriated by Iran decades ago.

If occupied, Kharg would quickly become what some might call a “forbidden island.”

From a military perspective, the operation itself could be relatively quick, with limited casualties compared to a mainland invasion.

Neutralize Iranian defenders. Secure the oil infrastructure. Leave the workers and engineers in place to maintain operations.

Meanwhile, continued pressure on Iran’s remaining leadership and infrastructure could weaken the government further.

Americans might pay a little more at the gas pump in the short term.

But if Washington were ultimately able to declare victory and consolidate control of Kharg Island, supporters of such a strategy would argue that the situation might eventually settle into a new and uneasy normal.

The question is whether such a move would bring stability to the region — or ignite a much larger and more dangerous conflict.

Either way, if Kharg Island becomes the next chess piece in this war, the world will soon find out.