By Ted Grussing
… new home construction is underway in the neighborhood, although I am not certain what the address is … perhaps Pine Tree Lane, third branch from the top? I took this shot of a crow as he departed a pine tree out back with a branch he broke off of it to be used in a new nest, or perhaps it is a remodel of last years nest? He didn’t stop to let me know which it was … probably didn’t pull a permit from the county either … perhaps they have their own planning council, yes, that must be it, we must have order after all.
Another good day with much accomplished … finished repainting a few areas of the exterior of the house … picked out the next opal to cut and start on that tomorrow. About a 120 carat boulder opal which should finish out around 90 to 100 carats. For reference a carat is a fifth of a gram and the piece weighs 24 grams … 31.1 grams in a troy ounce, which is what you buy when you buy an ounce of gold … at least in the jewelry trade. I’ll send a photo of it out after I finish it.
I’m thinking and actually hoping that the current situation with the covid-19 virus will forever change the way we live. It has made us very aware that there are “bugs” that live among us and that in fact they can kill us … we now have terms like “social distance” … “hand bumps” instead of “hand shakes” …no question that this will carry forward into how we perceive and live life going forward. This can also be a huge help in reducing the spread of diseases like influenza, the common cold and so many more. Large gatherings in stadiums? theaters? restaurants packed together? Probably not to the extent we have seen and lived it.
So far during the 2019-2020 Influenza season the hospitalization rate is 65 per 100,000 population. The mortality rate for P & I (pneumonia and influenza) is running at 7.1%. So we have a country of 330 million people, give or take a few million which means that there have been/are 214,500 hospitalizations related to the flu. In Arizona we have already had over 30,000 confirmed cases of the flu.
I have not found the stats, but I would think that given the national and international protections now in force that we are probably also seeing a reduction in the number of new infections of influenza too … makes sense, and that is why I am thinking that this is likely a very good wake up call for us and a moment which will change for the better the way we live our lives … having the knowledge of how our life styles impact the lives of others … we learn from experience.
We can always hope … from most tragedies lessons are learned … it is time we remember our history too, lest we continue to repeat lessons learned and forgotten. Government can only do so much, ultimately we determine our lives.
Links to check out since you are probably staying pretty close to home and have some time to be informed:
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/
weekly/index.htm - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/
weekly/index.htm#nav-group- 4bb53 - https://www.azdhs.gov/
preparedness/epidemiology- disease-control/flu/index.php# surveillance-influenza-season
When we have a vaccine for the covid-19 virus strain, it may be no more than just another flu in the future, killing tens of thousands of us every year that it has its turn … maybe a form of the current life style including social distance, hand bumps and things like that will lessen its impact in the future and even more importantly, in the present where we now find ourselves.
Have a beautiful day and enjoy this amazing world we call home … share the beauty you find in life!
Cheers and do keep breathing … it is my favorite exercise.
Ted
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The easiest way to reach Mr. Grussing is by email: ted@tedgrussing.com
In addition to sales of photographs already taken Ted does special shoots for patrons on request and also does air-to-air photography for those who want photographs of their airplanes in flight. All special photographic sessions are billed on an hourly basis.
Ted also does one-on-one workshops for those interested in learning the techniques he uses. By special arrangement Ted will do one-on-one aerial photography workshops which will include actual photo sessions in the air.
More about Ted Grussing …
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1 Comment
Derek von Briesen says:
March 27, 2020 at 2:03 am
Ted Grussing,
Yes, we may be living in a ‘post-truth’ world now (god, I hope not), but there are times when facts really do still matter. The stats you use to make an argument matter & should be used accurately.
I’m assuming–in the middle of the worst global novel infectious disease pandemic in over a century (see: 1918 Spanish Flu)–that your inaccurate listing of combined flu/pneumonia mortality at 7.1% is an attempt to buttress the common but incorrect argument that COVID-19 is really about the same as a seasonal flu.
You even ‘strengthened’ (?) the argument by combining two different diseases together (influenza & pneumonia).
Why? I guess adding pneumonia to your flu argument, gives a much higher number . . .
Compared to the inaccurate 7.1% mortality rate you list for flu & pneumonia combined, the .7%-3% mortality rate of COVID-19 is no big thang, just another media-driven nothingburger.
But a closer look reveals . . .
Influenza mortality rate is roughly.1% depending on the severity in any season.
Yes, pneumonia mortality rate is between 5% & 10%, ***OF HOSPITALIZED CASES.***
***Actual worldwide pneumonia mortality rates are considerably smaller at 1.7%***(total cases globally – 140-150 million; total deaths, 2.56 million in 2017).
So, the actual combined flu/pneumonia mortality rate is 1.8%.
Nothing to sneeze at, but really as we look at what we’re all going thru right now, a pretty meaningless comparison.
So why gin up the combined stat?
To suggest that somehow COVID-19 is no big deal?
That a never-seen-before virus, no no human immunity, with a mortality rate of, let’s just say for argument sake (most studies are arriving at around this figure based on testing, death rates so far), of 1%, sweeping the world, decimating health care systems in China, Iran, Italy, Spain, New York is no big deal?
The last time we had a global pandemic this serious, the Spanish Flu in 1918, between 30-50 million people died; 675,000 Americans died. The virus circled the globe three times, seasonally, before sufficient mutation of the virus combined with herd immunity to bring it to an end.
Tell the people who have lived/are still living thru the worst of this now (China, Iran, Italy, Spain, New York) that it’s no worse than the seasonal flu.
Tell the health care providers dying on the front lines, the countless millions of people around the globe huddled in voluntary and involuntary quarantine for weeks and months on end.
Tell that to the folks who have lost their jobs.
Suggest it’s no big deal to those kids that can’t visit their parents, their grandparents where they live.
Tell that to the grieving survivors who can’t even bury their loved ones. Whose loved ones are presently being stored in refrigerator trailer trucks backed up to hospitals, or in a re-purposed ice arena in Spain that’s now a morgue to deal with the crush of 500-1000 bodies every f-n day!!!
Arguments can be, and are being, made on both sides of the economy vs. life question, but not for a second should anyone make light of how serious this situation is for all of us.
Ten days ago, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, one of the most respected groups of infectious disease computer modelers on the planet, published a report that literally changed British (Boris Johnson) policy overnight, and so profoundly impacted our Task Force scientists that it pretty much turned the overall tone around, Monday, March 16.
In it, they predicted total deaths, without mitigation efforts, for Great Britain would be 510,000, and for the United States, 2.2 million. 81% of Americans would contract the disease.
With the kind of mitigation efforts we’re now making (but might relax as soon as Easter?), the total predicted deaths for the U.S. would still tally 1.1-1.2 million.
And that would pertain for the world something on the order of, Oh my f-n god, . . . a death toll of 28 MILLION!!
And that’s with disciplined, months-long mitigation efforts until a vaccine is discovered and circulated.
When was the last time you saw ‘just the flu’ act like that?
I’ll give you the answer: 1918.
Keep flying your plane, Ted. Keep turning out them great pix. Keep grinding them gemstones.
But if you’re gonna wax philosophical about what we’re all going thru right now, at least get your facts straight.
And furthermore, pointing us to flu stat CDC links does nobody any good at all.
At best, it produces a false sense of security; at worst, it’s a subtle bit of disinformation at a time when our lives all depend on making INFORMED CHOICES.
Your choices may be different than mine, but for god’s sake, counselor, at least point folks in the right direction.
Lots of things we can all do to make it thru this. Relax, breathe, love, walk, stay connected, stay informed, stay healthy, make the most of your days.
1:59AM, March 27, 2020
per Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center:
537,042 confirmed cases, COVID-19;
24,110 deaths