Iran War, Energy, Fertilizers: Coalition for International Food Security Insurance? 

By David Stephen 

Sedona, AZ — The war in Iran is the third time in six years after COVID and the war in Ukraine that disruptions would affect energy prices and cause fertilizer shortages.

This could mean food insecurity across continents, making it important to explore possibilities for food security with an insurance product.

Simply, to get all-important subsidies that farmers would need for agricultural necessities in their countries, it is possible that the population raises capital in a graded insurance model — to keep food supply uninterrupted.

There is a new [March 19, 2026] analysis in The New York Times, As Oil Prices Spiral, Damage to Infrastructure ‘Makes It Even Worse’, stating that, “International oil prices at one point on Thursday had jumped more than 10 percent, to around $118 a barrel, before falling back to around $111 a barrel. Liquefied natural gas prices were up about 12 percent in Europe.”

“If attacks on energy operations continue, some analysts warn that oil prices could soar beyond $150 a barrel — contributing further to the steady upward march of gasoline prices. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $3.88 on Thursday in the United States, up from $2.92 a month earlier, according to AAA.”

“After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, strategic stock releases did little to prevent global oil prices from reaching $125, and the supply gap from the Gulf shutdown is significantly greater, the Wood MacKenzie analysis said.”

Food Security Insurance

The objective is to lower retail food prices by providing pivotal subsidies to some agricultural necessities, in a country — regionally or nationally.

Simply, the goal is to raise capital from the residents for subsidies, for farming necessities, for crops of some staple food, so that it is extremely cheap and available, amid volatility in energy prices and fertilizer shortages.

There could be two insurance categories, say, beta and zeta. Beta will be a general qualification to buy a certain food item for cheap, which could just be one [or at most two]. While zeta could guarantee for multiple.

Zeta will be more expensive and then provide coverage for the two stages of the insurance benefits. Beta will also have some coverage but not as thorough.

To get people to buy the insurance en masse, they will be told that at least 15 – 20% of those who buy would win different food items initially. And then everyone who buys would be able to use the insurance to purchase cheaper food after harvest.

Simply, there will be a preliminary winning rotation, so that [a fraction of] people win — initially — all kinds and quantities of food items while everyone is able to buy cheaper food with the insurance, eventually.

People with the zeta insurance can buy multiple items, for cheap, while those with beta can buy limited items.

It is possible to price in fairness into the insurance, with enough rotation to ensure that initial wins get across to more people, better than the odds in general lottery. [It is not a lottery, because the objective is not to win prizes, but to have the insurance, as membership or qualification, to buy cheap food items.]

In agriculture, there are often a number of farming necessities. They include land, seeds, irrigation, fertilizers, farm machinery, pesticides, storage and transport to market.

Some of these are pivotal in some regions — of some nations — to some crops more than others. Simply, every country has a number of staple foods. Subsidizing farming necessities for some of those would make them cheap for consumers. So, a way to raise money to pay for the subsidies is through the food security insurance, applied structurally.

The goal is to use most of the profit to subsidize farming necessities, as well as have this as an opportunity to drive growth in the agriculture industry, with employment, exports and much else. The solution applies in the Middle East, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania.

Food Security Insurance Coalition

While a startup can power this, it is possible to also extend it with a coalition that may include the big agriculture corporations, Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bayer, Corteva, and Nutrien, as well as the big insurance companies for agriculture, Chubb Ltd, QBE Insurance Group, Sompo Holdings (AgriSompo), Swiss Re & Munich Re, PICC Property and Casualty Company Ltd, AXA XL and Allianz SE.

Even if launching the insurance product is not immediately likely before April 10, 2026, it is possible to design, structure, and prepare it thoroughly for deployment in some jurisdictions, so that it can also be announced, preparing nations as well as have the market see options for change.

The goal is to guarantee how countries can raise capital for their own agriculture subsidies to ensure stability in food prices, as well as affordability, against what maybe ahead for the rest of this decade, amid the war.

There is a new [March 19, 2026] report on BBC, White House seeks $200bn in military funding in wake of Iran war, stating that, “The $200bn request is in addition to the department’s annual budget of $838.7bn, which was approved by Congress in January.”

“Congress has separately approved $188bn in funding for aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022. About $110bn had been spent as of last December, according to the special inspector general tracking the funding. The Pentagon has told lawmakers the war cost the US $11.3bn in the first week alone. The conflict will enter its fourth week on Saturday. The funding request came as a US F-35 fighter jet had to make an emergency landing at a US air base on Thursday. The Pentagon estimates each such jet costs up to $77m.”

The stated goal of regime-change in Iran and then generally for peace in the Middle East, especially towards getting the people on board will take more than military intervention.

Messages of uprising from political leaders from nations involved may not be pervasive, showing the need for cognitive restructuring messages for the people on the future of the country.

So, while food security insurance is one aspect against risks, the next is cognitive messages for postwar stability.

Some of it could be based on the postulation in Conceptual Biomarkers and Theoretical Biological Factors for Psychiatric and Intelligence Nosology.